Hello. We're H1 Geography students.
We're doing a case study on the
Indian Ocean Tsunami that occured in 2004.
We hope this blog will be of help
for you to have a better understanding of the incident.
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Ting Chuan
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Friday, April 2, 2010
/ Predictions
Warning System
- Tsunami Warning System is made up of 26 participating member states throughout the Pacific basin which has the capacity to provide several hours of early warning of tsunamigenic activity. However, sufficient funding and international will is needed, before it could be adapted and introduced throughout the Indian Ocean. Furthermore, more development of rapid communication and evacuation systems must be set up in remote areas with marginalized populations

Seismic monitoring
- The Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) system consists of a surface buoy and a seafloor bottom pressure recording (BPR) package that detects pressure changes caused by tsunamis.
- The surface buoy receives transmitted information from the BPR via an acoustic link and then transmits data to a satellite, which retransmits the data to ground stations for immediate dissemination to NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers, NOAA's National Data Buoy Center, and NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory.
- When the internal detection software (Mofjeld) identifies a tsunami, the system ceases its standard mode of reporting water temperature and pressure (which are converted to sea-surface height) every 15 minutes. In event mode, 15-second values are transmitted during the initial few minutes, followed by 1-minute averages. Event mode messages also contain the time of the initial occurrence of the event. The system returns to standard transmission after 4 hours of 1-minute real-time transmissions if no further events are detected.
Animal early warning http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/11/1111_031111_earthquakeanimals.html
- The belief that animals can predict earthquakes has been around for centuries.
- In 373 B.C., historians recorded that animals, including rats, snakes and weasels, deserted the Greek city of Helice in droves just days before a quake devastated the place.
- Similar accounts of such anomalous animal behavior have been reported since- Fishes swimming violently, chickens that stop laying eggs and bees leaving their hive in a panic have been reported. Countless pet owners claimed to have witnessed their cats and dogs acting strangely before the ground shook—barking or whining for no apparent reason, or showing signs of nervousness and restlessness.
- One of the proposed theories is that animals feel the Earth vibrate before humans. Others suggest they sense electrical changes in the air or gas released from the Earth.
- Japan is one of the world's most earthquake-prone countries, where tragedy killed countless lives and caused great loss to property. Researchers there hope to use animals as a prediction tool by studying them with the hope of finding out what these animals feel or sense before the Earth shakes.
- Successful forecast of a major earthquake have been achieved before by China in 1975. Partly by observing strange antics of animals, Chinese officials ordered the evacuation of Haicheng, a city with one million people, just days before a 7.3-magnitude quake. Thus, only a minor percentage of the population were injured or killed. The estimated number of fatalities and injuries would have exceeded 150,000 if the city had not been evacuated..
- However there are some people who are doubtful even though cases of strange animal behavior prior to earthquakes have been documented. The United States Geological Survey, a government agency that provides scientific information about the Earth, argues that a reproducible connection between a particular behavior and the occurrence of a quake has never been made..
- Andy Michael, a geophysicist at USGS said that, "What we're faced with is a lot of anecdotes and animals react to so many things—being hungry, defending their territories, mating, predators—so it's hard to have a controlled study to get that advanced warning signal."
- reported animal behavior before an earthquake is simply their response to an increase in low-frequency electromagnetic signals. electromagnetic activity can be generated by the fracturing of crystalline rock in fault lines before earthquakes.
Recurrence interval prediction
- study of the offsets in sedimentary layers near fault zones
- the presence of peat in offset layers can provide us with a numerical age due to the high amounts of carbon. Hence recurrence interval can be determined
Seismic gap - a zone along a tectonically active area where no earthquakes have occurred recently, but it is known that elastic strain is building in the rocks.
- If a seismic gap can be identified, then it might be an area expected to have a large earthquake in the near future.
2:41 AM !
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